Chances of a 'mega-earthquake' striking California have reached a 1000-year high
Scientists cannot predict exact dates, so determining a specific annual likelihood for a massive "Big One" is impossible. However, experts warn the southern section of the San Andreas Fault is critically stressed—reaching its highest pressure levels in 1,000 years—making a major rupture inevitable over the coming decades. Key Seismic Hazard FactsThe "Big One" Window: The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimates a 75% likelihood of a magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake occurring in California within the next 30 years. Historical Delay: Some portions of the fault, particularly near the Tejon Pass, have not ruptured since 1857, leading many geologists to consider the region overdue for a major seismic event Heightened Stress: Recent University of Hawai'i and University of California, Riverside models reveal the stress is equivalent to or exceeds values seen in the past millennium. Potential for "Dual" Quakes: The Cajon Pass acts as an "earthquake gat...
